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EURUSD Not Done With The Top Side

Blog & Emails

EURJPY 5 Day Strength Hits Snag At Mid Bollinger Bang

Like a stretchy rope the mid Bollinger band has yanked the pair back towards 135.00 as selling emerged in front of 136.00 and left that point untouched. But with a lot of time still out in front of us, the old saying, It Ain't Over Till The Fat Lady Sings, comes to mind. I can't help but look at the wide swath of destruction cut by the western majors against the Yen and wonder if the USD is next, or is this the last gasp of currencies that about to tumble. It's not unlike the currency market to pretend a break just long enough to get silly money in before running the opposite direction. On each pair, at current levels, it's best to watch your step for a few days. Plan your trades with precision and let the chips fall. Take you gains, losses, lessons and be a move on to the next day.

EURJPY Approaches Killer Resistance

Prices have tried to reach to the top side and take on the resistance line, but has gently fallen back, suggesting that further testes may be instore. A break here, as discussed this morning, would be bad for the JPY, bringing risk and the carry trade back to the forefront. 136.23 is my line and signals further JPY weakness. The red line is the line I drew on this mornigs charts.

What Can Rising Oil Do To The Recovery?

In a Reuters article today, the IEA talked about the damage that rising oil could do to the recovery in the US and abroad. This has been an underlying theme in some of my articles over the last few months as oil began climbing and the "green shoots" theory started circulating. If there is one SURE way to get the consumers of the world to tighen their purse strings, it will be high gas prices. In fact, I haven't been at all discouraging of high prices either. The higher oil goes, the more alternative sources get explored and come to market. THe higher oil goes, the more likely it will be that the Obamam administration gives money to the alternative research engine, and I am all for that.

Meanwhile, the JPY took a pretty good beating on the day before the month closes. I would guess that alot of this had to do with trying to get out of the way before event risk crowds the calandar the rest of the week. NFO comes in on Friday and I would expect there to be a great deal risk in the market leading up to that as traders thin out positions take cover. Thin markets, exacerbated by the the US Holiday weekend, can be dangerous and unless you in are for the long haul, usually end in heart ache. Keep this in mind if you begin entering positions over the week.

For my part, I'll be at home over the weekend planning to get away the weekend after, avoiding the roads, trails and lakes while they are packed. After all, the weather in the High Uintahs is always cool in the evenings.

It’s More of A "Dump the JPY", Then Running From the Buck

The JPY is feeling the brunt of the weakness this afternoon, with the EUR, GBP and USD gaining a combined 418 points against the Yen. With the DJIA currently up over 80 points on the day, and wanting desperately to have a positive week, the JPY may experience significant weakness this week. The only Pair I am Long right now is the USDJPY, with targets above 97.50 I am considering a GBPJPY Long after today’s close. More on that later!

DJIA Potential Head and Shoulders With a 7750 Max Target

The daily chart on index may end up telling us a pretty good story if it cannot get back above 8911 highs from June 11th. Even more intriguing is the Double Top from June 5th and June 11th, only 11 points apart. Both of these together may be telling of a market that is getting tired of lifting. We will have to see how this plays out. Oil is back on its test of yearly highs as well. I wonder when the last time was that oil was strong, Equities were in the toilet and everyone was running for cover.

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EURJPY Touches Bottom of Critical Resistance Zone

Current price action is against the descending resistance line which may get broken and 135.00 comes under fire. This zone is critical. A break of the line and 135.00 beings in some higher prices around 137.80 and 139.21 These prices, if broken bring 142.00 into view. Eventhough a failure here would make the downside more likeable, two way action at these levels has bruised alot of egos lately, and until I see a clear break of the descending line on the top or 133.00 to the bottom, I anticipate the Range will hold.

GBPUSD Headed For A Test of 1.6662

If I had to guess, I would place bets on a test of 1.6662 this week. The only hurdle to the top side is 1.6602/21. Current price action is already within 100 points of the test. This top side action could be used as a selling opportunity to play the 1.6600/6200 range that had taken over in the last 2 weeks. A break above 1.6662 does not bode well for the USD and may usher in a period of sustained Buck weakness that would take a good deal of time or extreme sentiment changes to correct.

EURUSD Not Done With The Top Side

Pressure in the pair remains to the top side as traders will try and test the top side resistance line today. The highs from 06/24 and 06/26 make that line in the snad and a break above ther could lead to a 1.4338 test. The head and shoulder formation from last week is getting weaker and weaker with each passing day that it isn't filled. I will keep looking for a break of the neckline, today around 1.3839, but the support form the ascending line will have to fall first, and I don't see that happening.