Advanced retail sales contracted month over month from June to July. To me the, number is part of a bigger picture that is simplistic, but none the less valid. The Trend for this growth over the last few months has been down, as shown by the red line. Now three numbers does not a trend make, and there are those that would argue that sales were 2.6 percent higher than July 2007.

The point I am making is that regardless of the fact that this year’s sales were above last year’s sales, the troubling contraction year over year can’t be ignored.  

The following graph shows the contraction of the percentage of growth from the current month’s year previous data. Even though this month’s ARS number was 2.6% above last years, the trend for this number to keep falling is troubling. Next month, ARS will have to be more that 2% over last year’s number just to hold steady and show virtually no loss month over month.

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