The pairs bounced away from the moves set in motion on Friday. Given the likelihood that the news heavy docket this weeks will create moves of their own,  no one wants to be too long or short on any pair. The first major release comes tonight with Germany’s GDP numbers.  US news doesn’t hit until a bit later in the week.

EUR/USD

The pair ran into some tough resistance on Friday and wasn’t able to mount much defense on the move higher. Last night’s move lower and subsequent bounce out of 1.4696 begin to solidify the idea that a range is in place at least until the end of next week’s holiday shortened week. By the time Friday rolls around markets will be thin in anticipation for the holiday.

GBP/USD

Friday’s and last night’s congestion moves associated with the 10 day MA and RSI have not brought the daily oversold conditions back into check. Though RSI is not as oversold as it was last week, Technicians would like to see it rise a bit more before selling again. Selling oversold breaks is always a dicey game. As of now the congestion is around the 61.8% Fibo of the move from 1.7047 to 2.1163.

USD/JPY

The pair looks like it’s trying to set up house in the 108.32/110.69 area, with recent price action keeping it hemmed in. Sunday’s bounce out of Fridays low speaks volumes about where the market doesn’t want to go. While the other pairs had marching orders over the last few weeks, the USD/JPY has moved little in comparison. The fear, when it decides to go you had better be on the right side of the move.

USD/CHF

Unable to break or even reach 1.1124, MACD is threatening to rollover. This will introduce a return to the 1.0650 area initially. This is the 38.2 Fibo of the move from 1.0012 to 1.1044. Given the bounce out of Fridays low last night, neither side is giving up easily. The top resistance remains 1.1044 before 1.1124 can be reached, and the bottom needs to overcome initial support around 1.0823/29.

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