GBPCHF Tightening, I see a possible break lower as a trade opportunity

With price riding the top Resistance line, a break lower offers a great R:R ratio. I would prefer to see some weakness first, and then take the trade. I'll be using the named line alert to signal the trade for me, and even though I could use it to auto trade the pair, I'll just set it as an alert, for this pair I want to manually trade it.

After all the shouting the USD is not better off

Even after all the to do with this mornings USD strength, it has been to na avail. The USD still is oin a holding pattern over the support line ready to cave ant any moment. As long as the USDINX is at these levels, any USD bull moves are in great danger.

NZDUSD Looks at previous support for clues to where it should head
Not really, but support is lying just below current price action and may support going forward. We ruled the candle from this morning and look forward to the next; the last two candles have given us good action against the two that haven't filled yet. On a break of this support I may take additional risk on the tow candles further down.

USDCAD May Be Putting In a Bottom
If you look back in the past, you can see this MAY be the beginning of a bottoming feature in the pair. I am not saying this is for sure. There is much more to be seen, but a candle like this with 2 unfilled candles up above is very enticing for USDCAD buyers. I'll be taking advantage of buy signals at these levels and keeping risk to a minimum. Today was the first in 12 days to see the DJIA close negative, with a nice solid push in the afternoon to bring the index within striking distance of a positive close. Who's going to get pinched, the bulls or the bears, its crunch time?

My gloomy view for the USD is on hold

Yesterday I made at least two posts concerning the USDCAD, and this is my second one today. The first one yesterday I talked about a possible pull back to the red line below. Then later in the night I felt extremely gloomy about the prospects of the USDCAD and that a drastic fall may be in store so I posted about it. Now with the recent rise in price, the pair has escaped once again. My post this morning was about a black candle that backfilled in short order. Decisions are being made now that will affect the USD and the equity markets for the rest of the summer. Lets see how they shake out.

Lets see if the short red line make resistance out of previous support. Weakness in the index does not mean a turn around is necessarilty in store. Confirmation of a deeper pull back would be a close below 8800, and that, I don't think is in store for today.

One EXCITED TRADER
I was contacted by a rather excited trader this morning that has been trading the same way I do over the last few weeks. He's made a few mistakes, but stuck with the system and it has worked out so well for him. He sent me a screen shot for his account this morning and I have to say, it's pretty fantastic. Even with the -$196.00 fat finger mistake, the trades are pretty impressive. He trades with FXCM and he left his tickets up so you can see them. I have to say 362.2 points and $631.30 for these sets of trades are pretty darn good! (Current results are not indicative of future results, please see the Risk Disclaimer)

USDJPY Pulls back to weekly pivot
I should have been paying attention to the placement of the weekly pivot yesterday. I suspected that price action may be pulling the 20 MA closer to the 100 AM, instead the opposite has happened. The Weekly pivot is hit a little over 70% of the time the week it is created.** This is a much more reliable statistic than the 20 and 100 MA's closing. Price is currently hitting the 20 MA and the daily pivot located at 94.33 and 94.37 respectively. Weakness is based in good measure on the soon to be closed negative FTSE and a falling US equity market.

EURUSD falters as FTSE remains negative

With the FTSE almost assured of it's first negative close in 11 days, the US market opend broadly lower. These two things have contibuted to the fall in the the EURUSD in the last 30 minutes. The USDINX is back near 77.75 and a close at these levels creates a hammer signaling a possible reversal. Sentiment is definately USD bearish, which as often as the mob is worng, means the USD gains over the next few weeks.

NZDUSD Double Top or Ascending Triangle

Whether you see a double top or an ascending triangle, I think we have a few more days of back and forth. The double top is within three points of eachother, the only thing more on this we could ask for is a bit more space between them. The ascending triangle view tells us the likely break is to the top side.

4 of 6 now complete as USDCHF backfills the 4 AM candle

Just in the last few minutes the USDCHF has back filled. I worry a little about the NZDUSD and the AUDUSD, becasue they are so against the USD right now. But these 4 are great.

6 candles signal possible trades at 4 AM

6 possible trade setups happened at the close of the 4 AM bar. Three of them have already back filled. Here they are. Last night I was sure the USD was next to "done for" this morning, it has once again moved back from the edge. this high wire act, may get tiring for the USD bears. Asia is right on the wire of positive close, London's FTSE is 29 points lower butstill has three hours to go. The USDINX slipped to 78.32, one point below the double low from the first three days of last month. Talk about going to the edge!

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