With the results of retail sales from stores this week, we are seeing a weakening theme overall. The interesting thing that caught my attention was that even the stores that traditionally service the rich are seeing a slow in sales. If the wealthy change their spending habit or quit spending, the outlook is bleak for the USD. Keep an eye on these numbers as you can gauge some  of the future movements from them.

EUR/USD

RSI provided a bump in the direction of the retracement of last week’s fall. As of now the RSI continues to hold the rising support line. The move shouldn’t be over until this line breaks. The 1 HR chart isn’t really a long term chart but the reality is that most moves in the days to come will be shallow. There aren’t any fundamental news releases to provide a good bump. So take what you can when you can.

GBP/USD

Triangle forming on the 1 HR chart is looking for a break out from the last two and a half days worth of consolidation. The bottom side is favored, but make sure you have confirmation on any break out. The top at 1.8650 could still be active unless there is a convincing break. To the bottom, look for 1.8512 to be initial resistance and for 1.8090 to come into view over the next few weeks. As of now, the 61.8 Fibo of the move from the low of 2005 to the high of 2008, has broken at 1.8620 and this points to a full retracement of that move, if the week closes below there.

USD/JPY

Another day of the same ol’ same ol’. The pair is sitting right at the 110.00 mark wondering where it will get pulled to. As heavy as action has been of late, I will not be surprised to see the bottom line come into focus in the next few weeks. It is all going to be up to that little red line. If it goes, then the bottom is almost certainly there.

USD/CHF

The expanding horizons for the USD/CHF are running into some resistance at the 1.1050 level that smashed price action from the high so far of 1.1039. The barrier might be harder to overcome than thought. It will fall sooner or later because it’s attracting quite a bit of attention this morning. Even if the barrier is erased it may be a false break out. The impetus for further gains in the USD isn’t seen yet.

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