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Trading finally picks up as Buck gains some ground |
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How long the USD positive posture will last is to be seen. My guess, not long, a myriad of support and  Resistance points should keep trading rather muted going into the weekend. Overall the USD is not looking supported in the weeks to come. There are several technical levels that price action was not able to overcome that suggest there may soon be more trouble for the USD.
EUR/USD: Double Top sends EUR down
GBP/USD: 1.4433 not breached yet
USD/JPY: Price strikes top resistance line and falls
USD/CHF: Close above 1.1571 needed for more USD strength
EUR/USD
The double top mentioned in yesterday’s emal filled over night and is about half way to it’s target. Prices are currently finding a little support from the S2 Pivot Line and may retrace to 1.3027 hourly lows. The great part is, that this line is only 2 points away from the 38.2 retracment line of the 1.3180/1.2933 move at 1.3029. If price does not make this retracment line and falls further, my target is safe. If a retracment happens and the 50 line is broken at 1.3055 I would move to break even.
GBP/USD
Support is being seen at the Pivot line for the day. The big news for me so far is that there has not been a test of 1.4433 yet. The closest price action came was this morning high of 1.4412. A close above this mark is needed to show more strength in the pair. If 1.4400 continues to put up a fight, buyers may get frustrated and abandon longs, sending the pair lower. It only took three days to get here from 1.3500, and a return on frustration from buyers could put us back at those levels by mid point next week. I will be taking small trades around this area, but careful of the 1.4433 mark.
USD/JPY
As expected, the pair reached up and took the top resistance line by storm over night. The recent fall from 90.70 is marked with an hourly double top from yesterday. The entry for that would have been very tight at 90.21, with almost no wiggle room for a decent stop. The other consideration is that price is currently in an ascending channel that current action is less than 70 points from. I will be looking for a long off of the channel support line, or a short of a break there.
USD/CHF
- For more USD strength we will need to see a close above the 1.1558 61.8 Retracment line of the 1.2300/1.0371 move. So far though, price is failing in the 1.1515 area, the hourly charts having puched to as high as 1.1536 three times in the the last three hours but failing to close above each time. I will be shorting a failure here for a small target at the Daily Low of 1.1407, with a stop just above at 1.1539. I won’t look for a long position unless there is a close over 1.1516 and something else confirms. The 61.8 line was resistance on yesterday’s break higher. Thie current fight also corrosponds with yesterday’s identified 50 line.
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Last Updated on Friday, 30 January 2009 16:37 |
