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The USD has maintained its general sense of developing strength. The calendar is remarkably light on USD data until tomorrow morning when the USD  Consumer Confidence numbers for March come out. In fact it isn’t until Thursday that data gets really serious, with a combined ECB Rate Decision and US NFP numbers are both released.
EUR/USD: 1.3155 gives way
GBP/USD: First the 50% Fibo now the 61.8% gets hit
USD/JPY: 96.50 from Friday prints
USD/CHF: Black Candle retrace commences
EUR/USD
I mentioned last fFriday that todays lowish area was liekly to be hit. If the pair can close below this area, we may well see the 1.2950 area this week. A good deal depends on the view of traders on the weak calendar before the ever pervasive NFP is released on Friday.
GBP/USD
The pair is currently bouncing around two points, the daily S2 pivot and the break of 1.4204 from last Friday’s email. The reaction to support around 1.4151 is more critical than the reaction to the previous two points. A clear break of the later brings support at 1.3960 into view. It’s a clear shot form there down to 1.3700 should the USD take off.
USD/JPY
I mentioned last week that the pair could go as low as 96.50 and 95.50. Though 95.50 hasn’t been touched yet, I still feel the target is a good one for me. Currently the pair is finding a little Resistance up around 97.00 and may test here for the afternoon before falling again. I’ll wait to see what happens until later.The weekly down trend line from 8/22/08 high to 3/06/09 high still has not been closed over and may create a vigorous drop later in the week.
USD/CHF
In the last 10 years 87 of these black candles have been created and only 3 of them have not been completely retraced. Granted a few of them have taken more than a year to get back and two of them are up numbers not seen since 2002, but I like the odds. Reasons to go long for me are a plenty. The open of that candle is 1.1821, just a mere 280 higher. Make sure you do your own analysis on this one. That’s a big moves.
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