It has been suggested that the dollar is a short way from a 3-5 year bull run. Considering that the EUR/USD has been on the current path since late 2000, and broke from the pennant in early 2002 you could call this a six to eight year run. It’s only major retracement was in mid 07 and lasted only five months. It was the only time that major Fibonacci retracement numbers were hit, and it was to the rather shallow 38.2 line.

This puts the first major retracement level around 1.3100, with 1.2100 and 1.1200 in extension. 

On the last leg of the run, from the 1.1650 area to the all time high 1.6041, the 1.4400 level was the base for the latest push in late February of 08. The 1.4400 area also matches the 38.2 line in retracement. If this does unfold, look for those numbers on the way down. The key to opening the door downward will be the breakdown of the support line of 1.5300

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